Suiter Insurance Group
avatar_75Fan

MVC Tournament

Started by 75Fan, February 24, 2023, 10:56:42 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

75Fan

If the teams that are supposed to win their last game of the Conference Regular Season actually win, then this is what the tournament seeds will look like.....



SCHOOL                         NXT GM MVCREC TIE BREAK
# 1 BRADLEY                 69-66?   16-04
# 2 DRAKE                     66-69?  15-05
# 3 BELMONT                 74-73?   14-06      (BRADLEY)
# 4 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 66-61?   14-06      (MISSOURI STATE)
# 5 INDIANA STATE        71-68?   14-06
# 6 MURRAY STATE         76-69?   11-09      (BRADLEY)
# 7 MISSOURI STATE      68-71?   11-09
# 8 NORTHERN IOWA     73-74?   10-10
# 9 ILLINOIS STATE        72-64?   06-14
#10 VALPARAISO           69-76?   05-15
#11 ILLINOIS CHICAGO   61-66?   04-16
#12 EVANSVILLE 64-72? 01-18


Our win over Bradley was huge!


MONKEY WRENCH SCENARIOS

If Bradley beats Drake they will be the MVC Regular Season Champions. 

We need Bradley to win as we have the 6-seed tie breaker over Missouri State.

If Drake beats Bradley they will share the MVC Regular Season Championship with Bradley.

If Drake wins Missouri State is 2-0 against Drake and they have the tie breaker over us.

If Belmont loses to Northern Iowa, they will be the 5 Seed and Northern Iowa will stay the 8-seed due to tie breakers.

If Southern Illinois loses to Illinois-Chicago, they will fall to the 5-seed and Illinois-Chicago will remain the 11-seed due to tie breakers.

If Indiana State loses to Missouri State, they will remain the 5-seed due to record and will be the 6-seed and Murray State will fall to the 7-seed.

If Murray State loses to Valparaiso they will fall to the 9-seed due to record and tie breakers and Valparaiso will stay the 10-seed due to record and tie breakers.


This is assuming that tie breakers are not decided by teams that had unbalanced schedules - I thank that is poor practice, if so.

All that being said, with the above in mind, this is what the MVC Tournament will look like.....


Thursday Games
 5 INST       6 MURR     7 MOST     8 NOIA
12 EVAN   11 ILCH     10 VALP      9 ILST

Quarterfinals
1 BRAD 2 DRAK 3 BELM 4 SILL
8 NOIA 7 MOST 6 MURR 5 INST

Semifinals
1 BRAD 2 DRAK
4 SILL 3 BELM

Championship
1 BRAD
2 DRAK
6 ETHICS OF LIFE

1.  BEFORE YOU PRAY..........BELIEVE.
2.  BEFORE YOU SPEAK.......LISTEN.
3.  BEFORE YOU SPEND.......EARN.
4.  BEFORE YOU WRITE.......THINK.
5.  BEFORE YOU QUIT...........TRY.
6.  BEFORE YOU DIE.............LIVE.

75Fan

I should have looked this up first.....



Tournament Tiebreaker System
Regular-season standings are the determining factor in setting first-round pairings for the State Farm MVC Tournament.  All ties will be broken starting at the top of the Conference standings and working down.  The tie-breaking system for seeding of the State Farm MVC Tournament, regardless of whether a tie involves two or more teams, will utilize the following factors, in order, until all ties are broken.


Two-way Ties
1. Records in head-to-head competition are compared, with the higher seed going to the team that has won the most games against the other.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken using the NCAA Evaluation Tool (N.E.T.), as published by the NCAA on the morning after the final regular-season MVC games.  The team with the better N.E.T. rating will receive the higher seed.


Multiple Ties
1. If three or more teams are tied, regular-season competition among the tied schools shall be pooled into a "mini round-robin."  Teams shall be ranked according to their position in such a round-robin.
2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken using the NCAA Evaluation Tool (N.E.T.), as published by the NCAA on the morning after the final regular-season MVC games.  Team will be seeded based on their N.E.T. rating.
6 ETHICS OF LIFE

1.  BEFORE YOU PRAY..........BELIEVE.
2.  BEFORE YOU SPEAK.......LISTEN.
3.  BEFORE YOU SPEND.......EARN.
4.  BEFORE YOU WRITE.......THINK.
5.  BEFORE YOU QUIT...........TRY.
6.  BEFORE YOU DIE.............LIVE.

TennRacer85

I might be wrong, but we have zero chance of being the #6 seed.  The loss to Missouri State assured that.  Head-to-head is tied, but we're 70 spots lower in the NET ranking.  If we beat Valpo, we've secured the #7 spot.  If we lose to Valpo and UNI wins, then we're #8.  If UNI loses and we lose, we stay at #7.  There's no possible way we fall to #9.

Most likely scenario is that we are playing at 6pm Thursday night against Valpo with the winner taking on Bradley on Friday.

75Fan

QuoteAll ties will be broken starting at the top of the Conference standings and working down.
They need to remove this section as it doesn't apply.  I used this because it was listed first and said "all ties".

In reality, we are tied with MOST h2h but the NET as the next step instead of record against the best teams top-to-bottom puts us as #7.

Until the NET stops rewarding losses to good teams, the P6 will always have the advantage come selection time.

A loss should ALWAYS lower a team's rating and a win should ALWAYS raise a team's rating.  Anything else and it's a bogus rating IMO.  Win-Loss % is proof of this.

I've said it before but when comparing 2 teams with the same record, the team with the better SOS should be ranked ahead.  Conversely, when comparing 2 teams with the same SOS, the team with the better record should be ranked ahead.

6 ETHICS OF LIFE

1.  BEFORE YOU PRAY..........BELIEVE.
2.  BEFORE YOU SPEAK.......LISTEN.
3.  BEFORE YOU SPEND.......EARN.
4.  BEFORE YOU WRITE.......THINK.
5.  BEFORE YOU QUIT...........TRY.
6.  BEFORE YOU DIE.............LIVE.


atlantaracer

75

I think there are few corrections to your seeds the way I interpret. 

Bradley and Drake are tied now. Winner is outright champion (Drake wins outright, not shared with Bradley and #1 via tiebreaker). Loser is #2 

In a 3 way tie for 3rd with Siu, isu and Belmont, Siu is 3 seed with a 2-1 record against the other 2. Belmont is the 4 seed with a 1-1 record, and isu is 5th with a 1-2 record. 

Siu owns the tiebreaker against Belmont in a 2 way tiebreaker with 1-0 head to head win; siu owns the 2 way tiebreaker vs isu because they split head to head, they both are winless against Bradley, both split vs Drake, and Siu beat Belmont but isu lost to Belmont. So siu is 3 seed with a win. 

Belmont is 3 seed with a win and siu loss. Isu can only be 3 seed with a win and losses by siu and Belmont. 

We are 6 seed with a win, Mo state loss, and Bradley win. We are 8 seed with loss and uni win, as we lose tiebreaker head to head with uni. In any other scenario, we are 7 seed.  

ghughe1950

I've not listened to a March to The Arch Podcast all the way through until today. I finished the Feb 24 session this afternoon. Interesting discussion from a program insider about Valparaiso. Begins at the 47 minutes in mark. 

Handicap

Quote from: ghughe1950 on February 24, 2023, 04:29:33 PMI've not listened to a March to The Arch Podcast all the way through until today. I finished the Feb 24 session this afternoon. Interesting discussion from a program insider about Valparaiso. Begins at the 47 minutes in mark.
All i heard was about them talking about all mvc teams. Is it a part of that or later?

RacerHistory

QuoteSo, if the Beers beat Detroit and Denver beats Atlanta in the American Southwestern Division East Northern, then Milwaukee goes to the Denslow Cup, unless Baltimore can upset Buffalo and Charlotte ties Toronto, then Oakland would play LA and Pittsburgh in a blind choice round robin. And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, a two-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion can be crowned.

75Fan

Quote from: atlantaracer on February 24, 2023, 02:26:02 PM75

I think there are few corrections to your seeds the way I interpret.

Bradley and Drake are tied now. Winner is outright champion (Drake wins outright, not shared with Bradley and #1 via tiebreaker). Loser is #2

In a 3 way tie for 3rd with Siu, isu and Belmont, Siu is 3 seed with a 2-1 record against the other 2. Belmont is the 4 seed with a 1-1 record, and isu is 5th with a 1-2 record.

Siu owns the tiebreaker against Belmont in a 2 way tiebreaker with 1-0 head to head win; siu owns the 2 way tiebreaker vs isu because they split head to head, they both are winless against Bradley, both split vs Drake, and Siu beat Belmont but isu lost to Belmont. So siu is 3 seed with a win.

Belmont is 3 seed with a win and siu loss. Isu can only be 3 seed with a win and losses by siu and Belmont.

We are 6 seed with a win, Mo state loss, and Bradley win. We are 8 seed with loss and uni win, as we lose tiebreaker head to head with uni. In any other scenario, we are 7 seed. 
Thanks for the correction.

The NCAA website I took the standings from showed (at the time) Bradley ahead by 1 game.

In the other scenarios, I didn't accumulate wins but rather took the head-to-head for the top seed and then the top-to-bottom records, again in error.

Good looking out!
6 ETHICS OF LIFE

1.  BEFORE YOU PRAY..........BELIEVE.
2.  BEFORE YOU SPEAK.......LISTEN.
3.  BEFORE YOU SPEND.......EARN.
4.  BEFORE YOU WRITE.......THINK.
5.  BEFORE YOU QUIT...........TRY.
6.  BEFORE YOU DIE.............LIVE.

75Fan

So, per that chart, there's a 31.6% chance we get a 6 seed, a 53.5% chance we get a 7 seed and a 14.8% chance we get an 8 seed.
6 ETHICS OF LIFE

1.  BEFORE YOU PRAY..........BELIEVE.
2.  BEFORE YOU SPEAK.......LISTEN.
3.  BEFORE YOU SPEND.......EARN.
4.  BEFORE YOU WRITE.......THINK.
5.  BEFORE YOU QUIT...........TRY.
6.  BEFORE YOU DIE.............LIVE.

ghughe1950

I
Quote from: Handicap on February 24, 2023, 05:11:03 PM
Quote from: ghughe1950 on February 24, 2023, 04:29:33 PMI've not listened to a March to The Arch Podcast all the way through until today. I finished the Feb 24 session this afternoon. Interesting discussion from a program insider about Valparaiso. Begins at the 47 minutes in mark.
All i heard was about them talking about all mvc teams. Is it a part of that or later? after the talk about teams.
It's after the talk about the teams. Should be at the 47:00 mark on the Feb 24 podcast. It's about the state of affairs of the Valpo program.

bjhracer

Just say the promo for tomorrows game.   Is DJ not coming back next year?   Honoring DJ and Rod Thomas on senior day.   I thought Rod was our only senior.  
\"I hate losing, I hate losing more than I love winning.\"  B.J. Jenkins

75Fan

Quote from: ghughe1950 on February 24, 2023, 11:43:09 PMI
Quote from: Handicap on February 24, 2023, 05:11:03 PM
Quote from: ghughe1950 on February 24, 2023, 04:29:33 PMI've not listened to a March to The Arch Podcast all the way through until today. I finished the Feb 24 session this afternoon. Interesting discussion from a program insider about Valparaiso. Begins at the 47 minutes in mark.
All i heard was about them talking about all mvc teams. Is it a part of that or later? after the talk about teams.
It's after the talk about the teams. Should be at the 47:00 mark on the Feb 24 podcast. It's about the state of affairs of the Valpo program.
Quote"I'm picking Valpo.  Murray does not seem to want to play hard enough on the defensive end to really beat anybody consistently."

- 1:17:00 mark of the 24 FEB 23 "March to the Arch" podcast.
This, from outsiders looking in.
6 ETHICS OF LIFE

1.  BEFORE YOU PRAY..........BELIEVE.
2.  BEFORE YOU SPEAK.......LISTEN.
3.  BEFORE YOU SPEND.......EARN.
4.  BEFORE YOU WRITE.......THINK.
5.  BEFORE YOU QUIT...........TRY.
6.  BEFORE YOU DIE.............LIVE.

ghughe1950

Quote from: ghughe1950 on February 24, 2023, 04:29:33 PMMY BAD!  IT IS NOT FEB 24. BUT FEBRUARY 17 PODCAST 

I've not listened to a March to The Arch Podcast all the way through until today. I finished the FEB 17 session this afternoon. Interesting discussion from a program insider about Valparaiso. Begins at the 47 minutes in mark.

­čí▒ ­čí│
Racerhistory.com