Post Season Options and Virus Discussion

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JoeD
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm

My numbers are actuals, not projections. At the time of this posting, in the US there are 64,765 positive COVID cases and there have been 910 deaths

The only projection is in the percentage of the population who would get infected. The rest is born out through the pandemic, sometimes higher, sometimes lower.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by runningracer » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:23 am

I never mentioned the actual numbers as I accepted those at face value, since I know you as a responsible poster. It was the projection of 50-80 % of the population becoming affected that I was commenting on. The actual numbers will never come close to that. Around 10% would be more likely, and since they are finding more ways to treat it, including both pharmaceuticals, and antibody transfer through blood plasma, the mortality rate should drop significantly. Make no mistake, it is serious business, but not as serious as some in the media want it to be. Governor Cuomo even had to admit today that the numbers were slowing down in New York. I appreciate the updates on the actual numbers. You are providing us with much needed information.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:14 am

Pharmaceutical treatments will take 12 months as there is nothing clinical that says that any of the rumored treatments actually work.

Antibody transfer was a desperation measure done in 1918-19 and hasn’t been done since. Even now, it’s a palliative measure, not a cure.

We have a total of 65,000 ICU beds in the US. I bet if we really stretch, we could probably double that to around 130,000. Once we get to that point, fatalities will increase not decrease.

The fastest growing COVID outbreak isn’t New York/New Jersey, it’s Louisiana and other states where social distancing wasn’t embraced as quickly.

The country is still on an exponential growth curve for infections. I hope I’m wrong, but I believe this will get worse before it gets better.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by SwedeDRC » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 am

Joe... Stop watching cnn and msnbc. Please...Expand your sources for news...really you are missing a lot of what is happening especially clinal trials. Oh before you come back with an inference about Fox..No Im not hinting you watch Fox either.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by Administrator » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:56 am

Keep the discussion non-political. I will not allow it to regress to that.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:07 am

Swede, I’m currently reading the Johns Hopkins COVID website. Can you suggest a more accurate source for news?
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by STLRacer » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:36 pm

Can we stop arguing about the small details of all this and just admit that its a terrible situation and thousands of people are losing loved ones. Let's just take some precautions and get through it. Stop comparing it to the Flu, it's not the Flu and we don't have immunity to it. Yes, tons of people die from the flu every year, but this ransacks areas if left unchecked and causes doctors to have to choose which people to die because they are overburdened and cant take care of every patient. This will not happen everywhere, but it's also why comparing this to the flu is silly and insensitive. Just take care, think of others and we will get through it! Hope all of you on here are well, and I cannot wait until we can focus on Racer Basketball once again!
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by smidge34 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:39 pm

Seems appropriate.

Image
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by runningracer » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:25 pm

True, there is only anecdotal evidence that the medicine works, but the same reports of success are coming from China, France, Israel, South Korea, and most recently, Italy. Several doctors in the United States have used it off label, at the request of the patient. They have experienced only success. A large number of doses was sent to New York, but the governor has allowed it's use only by those who agree to participate in a double blind test, which should end on Tuesday.. How many of those who don't get the treatment, but only a placebo will not make it. This is a drug that has been used for over 50 years, and to deny it's use is nothing short of criminal. Normally, a drug needs to undergo a large, and lenthy process to expand the label,but these are desparate times that require desperate measures. The medication is preferable to the plasma treatment, because it is a complicated process.,but it has been proven to work also.
The major problem now is getting beds, equipment, and supplies.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm

A double blind study is how you determine if something actually works because while it has been used for 50 years, it has side effects, including death.

Care to site your source?
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CoViD-19

Post by 75Fan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:15 pm

SOURCE: Center for Systems Science and Engineering, John's Hopkins


                     TOTAL |  ACTIVE | DECEASED | RECOVERED
KENTUCKY                  247 |       ? |      5   |       ? 
UNITED STATES          83,836 |  81,946 |  1,209   |     681
WORLD                 529,591 | 383,471 | 23,970   | 122,150 


LINK: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by runningracer » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:03 am

Any chemical can be deadly if used in a dose that exceeds human tolerance. The only death that I know of is the self medicating individual who used pool cleaner. Doctors are using it in the same manner as labeled, just for a different illness. They are administering it over a five day period in the hospital. The drug has been safely used for 65 years. It appears in some cases there are two choices. Since it is the only known treatment that is working, you can have it administered under a doctor's supervision, or you can die while waiting for the study. While they would rather have the study, both Dr. Fauci, and Dr. Oz have termed the treatment as promising. Don't worry, we will know the results by the end of next week.


Can you cite your source that speculates that 50-80% of the people in the United States will get the virus. I suspect it is from England, and lacks any scientific credibility. You should stop scaring people needlessly. We are taking all reasonable precautions.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:03 am

Actually, an infectious disease will continue to infect until unable to find a susceptible host before dying. This law is the basis for “herd immunity”. The point in which herd immunity is triggered, barring some issues (geographical isolation on non immune hosts also known as “clusters”, etc) is around 85%. I have been using a number less than that to prove my points in the overwhelming nature of this pandemic.

As for the “inaccurate” British study, it posited the potential effects without interference. Since we are all supposed to be social distancing, we have changed the assumption. That doesn’t mean it was wrong.

I have asked for you sources and you haven’t given any. Should I ask again?





Source material
https://books.google.com/books?id=2rnPI ... &q&f=false
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by evvracerfan » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:38 am

I think maybe this whole thread should be quarantined.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by sparekracer » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:50 am

I would still like to know just how bad the symptoms are for the majority of people. No question there are some that suffer greatly with this virus... but how prominent is that? And what other conditions did those people have before contracting the virus?

If there are 320 million people in the US and only 86,000 are infected with it... how contagious is it?

If more than 86,000 people actually have it, but aren't producing symptoms bad enough to warrant testing (whether that's determined by a health official or by their own volition)... then how bad are the actual symptoms? And if the number of people who actually have it are a lot higher (like 860.000) but the death toll only goes up marginally when using this defined number (say 2,000 vs the currently reported 1,300) then does that start to quell some fears?

The virus either isn't as contagious as we've been lead to believe or the symptoms aren't that bad for the majority of people. I think one of those statements being true is at least plausible.

If the symptoms aren't that bad for the majority of people, then perhaps the Netherlands and Sweden have a better approach in trying to use infection/recoveries as a form of herd immunity. That's not to say that there's a vulnerable portion of a population that needs to avoid the virus at all costs, but that's the segment of the population that would need to be controlled.

This is why I'd really like to see a widespread antibodies test done, probably in Washington state since that's where all of this started in the US and has been going on the longest. Find out how many people HAD the virus, and what symptoms they had (if any), and just how debilitating it was for them.

Isolation only works for a limited time... unless you isolate forever or until a viable vaccine is produced and distributed. We can all isolate and reduce the transmission of the virus down to 0. But what happens when someone new enters the population infected with the virus? We'll start this all over again.

I'm not suggesting that there shouldn't be some fear with this virus... but for me the numbers just don't add up (yet). Now maybe these numbers start to converge at some point and the fear factor starts to become more reasonable. But right now... the numbers just don't look that concerning to me.

But having said all of that... I am doing everything that government and health officials are suggesting we do. Just because I may not agree with the concerns doesn't mean that I am going to blatantly ignore them.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:58 pm

The last R0 I saw (measure of the spread of this disease) had it more virulent than the flu, with 5% of those contracting it needing advanced care (assistance in breathing, average ventilator time 11-21 days- about 3-5x what normal vent use), with a fatality rate of about 1.5% (as of now, US only).

This is the basis of a worst case scenario in the US- a easily transmissible disease, that would spread to herd immunity point (about 85%, or around 297 million sick), 5% would need ICU intervention (5% of 297 million is about 14 million), if the numbers would hold with little change, the fatality rate would be around 4 million people.

And before Smidge jumps in and says “we don’t know how many people have had it because there haven’t been enough tests, so we can’t know a fatality rate” (he is correct of course), remember also that we don’t know how many people have died of it either, both are being tested at the same rate now.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by 75Fan » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:18 pm

SOURCE: Center for Systems Science and Engineering, John's Hopkins


                     TOTAL |  ACTIVE | DECEASED | RECOVERED
KENTUCKY                  247 |       ? |      5   |       ? 
UNITED STATES          97,028 |  94,774 |  1,438   |     816
WORLD                 566,269 | 413,078 | 25,423   | 127,768


LINK: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by sparekracer » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:25 pm

Well, the 1.5% is coming from the 1,438 deaths out of 94,238 confirmed cases.

Maybe these numbers are right... I don't know. But my assumption is that that 94,238 is incredibly low - otherwise I would have to question just how contagious the virus really is. The argument can certainly be made that there hasn't been enough testing done. But by the time you can get people tested and those results (from being actively infected) people are already going to be recovering or recovered from it, that's why I think an anti-bodies test, in terms of mass testing, makes more sense.

If it turns out that instead of 94,238 have the virus right now, that number is 10x greater, 942,380 and if the number of deaths, let's say doubles to 2,876... then you're looking at a mortality rate of 0.3%. Which is still significant, but a lot less than 1.5%.

If it turns out that instead of 94,238 have the virus right now, that number is 942,380 and the mortality rate stays at 1.5%, that means 14,135 people have died from this virus. Nothing is being reported that we've seen an increase in death rate of this magnitude - but that doesn't mean it's not true.

Granted this is all hypothetical. But is everyone putting their faith in the 94,238 number being absolutely correct?

The flu infects any where from 5 to 20% of the population a year. 20% of 320 million is 64 million. We're not seeing the number infected with this covid-19 virus any where close to that (yet). Flu season last about 3 months. that means about 5,333,333 a week. We're what, 2? 3 weeks into this pandemic? That would be 16 million infected with the flu at the 20% rate, but yet we're only seeing 94,238 people infected with the covid-19 virus... that's suppose to be more contagious than the flu?

This is where the numbers don't add up to me. But again, that doesn't mean that we shouldn't be treating this virus seriously. But when I see so many people alarmed and scared about this virus, I just don't know if it's all that warranted. Use common sense, follow prevention guidelines, be vigilant, but stay calm.

Edit: I missed a decimal, so my numbers about the flu infection were wrong.
Last edited by sparekracer on Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:35 pm

It is taking 14 days in many cases to get test results back. This isn’t a two week recovery even for those with “mild” cases.

There is residual immunity from the flu. There is none for COVID. There is no comparison.

We are seeing infected numbers growing exponentially. At this rate, nearly doubling in the US every two days.

We have no data that shows that seasons will definitely slow infection rates of COVID. It isn’t the flu. Don’t assume it will behave the same.

We are about to see what a fatality rate does when a system is overwhelmed. I can assure you it won’t go down. And New York has far more hospitals, doctors, nurses, and ventilators per capita than Mississippi does. My hope is that by the time it reaches where my family is, we will have the capacity added enough where we don’t have to use refer trailers to store the dead bodies in like they are in NYC.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by runningracer » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:45 pm

So, the study that has been referenced lacks the proper controls to have accuracy, and changes from day to day, depending on the conditions. In other words a guess based upon a collection of some facts, predicting the outcome.. The problem with people is they want to take theoretical studies, and promote them as fact. They are not, and when they are promoted as such, it makes for bad science. The numbers from the British study have been wrong in China, and South Korea. If the entire nation was populated as in New York, it might have a degree of validity. The rate in Kentucky will be less than 1%.
Bottom line that we can agree on. This is a serious virus, and every precaution should be taken.
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