What's up in the Valley!

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speck
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by speck »

I enjoy all your figures you throw out there at us, good readings. How do you get that a post season tournament would want 2 and 300 ranked teams?
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by 75Fan »

speck wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 5:15 pm I enjoy all your figures you throw out there at us, good readings. How do you get that a post season tournament would want 2 and 300 ranked teams?
Good Question.

The sad answer is, I must have accidentally deleted the section that was supposed to say "The following teams have to win their conference tournaments to have any chance at post-season play."

Good catch speck!

Thanks for pointing it out!
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by 75Fan »

There!

It's fixed!
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by atlantaracer »

Tonight belmont, Murray and Peay all lose. Since Belmont joined the OVC, I can’t recall that happening on the same night.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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atlantaracer wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:00 pm Tonight belmont, Murray and Peay all lose. Since Belmont joined the OVC, I can’t recall that happening on the same night.
It may happen again on Saturday.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by wallaceracer »

EIU goes on the road and beats Murray and Peay, but then goes home and loses to SEMO to eliminate themselves from the tournament. Man how did they manage to screw that up?
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by Sycamorefan96 »

With this normal bracket, I think everyone in the top 6 is a contender. Belmont has been the most consistent by far, followed by Morehead. JSU is probably the most athletic. EKU, Murray, and Peay are all streaky. Some nights they look like top 25 material and then the next game they are losing (sometimes badly) to teams that won't even make the OVC Tournament.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by evvracerfan »

Sycamorefan96 wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:45 am With this normal bracket, I think everyone in the top 6 is a contender. Belmont has been the most consistent by far, followed by Morehead. JSU is probably the most athletic. EKU, Murray, and Peay are all streaky. Some nights they look like top 25 material and then the next game they are losing (sometimes badly) to teams that won't even make the OVC Tournament.
If this season has taught me anything, it's that Murray State and Austin Peay are capable of beating anyone on any given night but they're incapable of stringing together wins against good teams. We're going to need the top seeds to be upset in the first round to have a shot. If EKU isn't turning you over with their press, their halfcourt offense and defense are very ordinary (except for last night of course). I see it as Belmont/Morehead/JSU being the favorites, and I'd give the edge to Morehead for their defense, the Broome kid, and the uncertainty surrounding Moose's ankle (again).
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by smidge34 »

I like Morehead especially if Muszynski is out but I sure as heck wouldn’t want to play Eastern right now.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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smidge34 wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:48 am I like Morehead especially if Muszynski is out but I sure as heck wouldn’t want to play Eastern right now.
They're the only team in the top 4 that I think we have a realistic chance of beating. If Robinson isn't healthy I don't see us beating JSU or Belmont, and I can't see us beating Morehead regardless of his status. If KJ gets in foul trouble early and we don't have DR, we can get blown away by anyone in the tourney. EKU's style plugs into our strength - open court/transition game/uptempo - and we're a quicker team without Robinson (I didn't say better so don't read that into it). I guess on any given night we could shoot the 3's in volume at a high rate, but that has only happened a handful of times all season. I'm hoping that I'm completely wrong and this team shows up with a fire we haven't seen since the first Austin Peay game for 3 straight games, but there's just nothing in the last 3 months to point to that says that's likely to happen.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by atlantaracer »

I actually think we match up with EKU better. We don’t match up well vs tough physical teams like Morehead and Jax.

EKU looked good last night and that freshman point guard is really good. I think EKU’s issue will be whether they can win 3 games in 3 days with that style and lack of depth.

If Jax plays like they did last night, they will be tough to beat. But I don’t see them shooting well enough consistently on a neutral floor. I think it’s tougher to shoot in a larger gym than a smaller one, as depth perception is different.

I’m still hopeful of a run by the Racers, but don’t think the odds are favorable. But that’s why you have to play the games.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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I hear what y’all are saying and ageee to some extent but EKU will be foaming at the mouth to get another shot at us. I’m glad it’s looking like they’ll be on other side of bracket and they will likely leave the conference having lost to us.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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smidge34 wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:17 am I hear what y’all are saying and ageee to some extent but EKU will be foaming at the mouth to get another shot at us. I’m glad it’s looking like they’ll be on other side of bracket and they will likely leave the conference having lost to us.
Will EKU be foaming at the mouth to have another shot at Peay, because I’m 99 percent sure that’s who they’ll be playing.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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I’m fairly certain too but I’m not betting the farm on anything when it comes to us or Peay. We could get our asses handed to us Saturday very easily and though I don’t expect it, it wouldn’t surprise me for Peay to beat Jax.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by murraygrad05 »

EKU before last night had been struggling though. Last night might have reignited the fire, but ya never know.

As for us, hard to believe a Murray team that is a year out of being co-champions with no real large turnover is barely making a 6 seed. EKU would be the best of the top 4 that we match up with.

If we lose at Tech Saturday I’m pledging my loyalty to the pillpoppers. Maybe not that drastic, but it will be a major step in the wrong direction and even more proof that we don’t deserve to be in any tournament, including the conference tourney.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by 75Fan »



This information is current as of midnight Feb. 27, 2021


The following teams have a good shot
at an at-large bid if they keep winning...

	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM		
	3	-2	Drake		
	17	NC	Loyola, IL	
	43	+8	Belmont		


The following teams normally have a good
Shot at a post-season tournament if they
don't make the NCAA tournament.....


	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM		
	63	-6	Missouri St.	
	89	-10	Indiana St.	
	115	-3	E Kentucky	
	117	+2	Morehead St.	
	148	-4	Jacksonville St.


The following teams have to win their
conference tournaments to have any
chance at post-season play.


	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM		
	203	+7	S. Illinois	
	207	+7	Bradley		
	229	-22	N. Iowa		
	235	+19	Valparaiso	
	247	+8	Murray St.	
	251	+8	Evansville	
	263	+26	Illinois St.	
	274	+12	Austin Peay	
	307	-6	SE Missouri	
	316	-4	SIU Edwardsville
	320	+10	E Illinois	
	335	+3	TN Martin	
	338	-3	TN Tech		
	342	NC	TN State	


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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by evvracerfan »

Are you sure about Belmont's ranking? They lose to a much lower ranked team and they go up 8 spots? Their NET ranking dropped 11 spots after the loss and is down to 74 now. I can't imagine a scenario now where Belmont gets an at large bid.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by evvracerfan »

Never mind - with their loss today Belmont won’t even be in the bubble discussion.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by smidge34 »

Looks like we are the 5 seed and have a date with JSU regardless of our outcome.
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