What's up in the Valley!

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Sycamorefan96
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by Sycamorefan96 »

So if Belmont wins their last 4 what's the chances of them getting an at-large bid again if they are upset in Evansville? They'd be 26-1 entering the tourney. Does a 26-2, 27-2, or 28-2 team get left out?
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by JoeD »

It would be a difficult spot to be in. They would probably be out with a second loss.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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In the new AP top 25 poll today Belmont is up to 28th. They might crack the top 25 by the time the OVC Tourney rolls around.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by JoeD »

Boy that sounds awfully familiar
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by speck »

Anybody remember when the last time we were top 25 or 30?
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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As it pertains to NCAA selection, I think Selection Sunday 2015 showed me what the ultimate value of a top 25 Ranking was. As it pertains to how good a team is, I guess you would have to ask Marquette a couple years ago.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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Well, we owed Marquette one!
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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Yeah and we payed in full, with interest.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by 75Fan »


With the data I have so far, here are the OVC and MVC teams
and their rank according to their win-loss record and strength of schedule.....

The following teams have a good shot
at an at-large bid if they keep winning...

11		Loyola, IL
33		Belmont
36		Drake



The following teams have a good shot 
at a post-season tournament 
if they don't make the NCAA tournament.....

81		Missouri St.
92		Indiana St.
113		E Kentucky
125		Morehead St.
139		Jacksonville St.



The following teams need to win 
their respective tournaments to have 
any chance at post-season play.....

173		Bradley
179		S. Illinois
201		Austin Peay
219		Murray St.
237		Evansville
241		Valparaiso
251		N. Iowa
272		Illinois St.
297		SE Missouri
312		SIU Edwardsville
320		TN Martin
326		E Illinois
338		TN State
341		TN Tech




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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by 75Fan »

fixed.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by JoeD »

The NIT is only having 16 teams this year, the CIT is cancelled and I doubt the CBI goes forward.

But I don’t think there is a snowballs chance that Belmont gets an at large with two losses.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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The last time I heard that, Belmont got an at-large bid. :shrug:

On a side note, wasn't Belmont the only team to have punched their ticket to the dance before they shut everything down?
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by 75Fan »

SEMO knocks off APSU in overtime @ SEMO!!!
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by evvracerfan »

Peay blew a 10 point lead with under six minutes to go - crushing loss.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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75Fan wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:24 pm The last time I heard that, Belmont got an at-large bid. :shrug:

On a side note, wasn't Belmont the only team to have punched their ticket to the dance before they shut everything down?
Bradley punched their ticket the day after Belmont did. I think maybe NKU also punched their ticket from the Horizon League.

I like your chart above. I tend to think if Belmont wins their next 5 (counting the game against the 8 seed) they should make it as an at-large bid if they were to lose in Evansville. I would like to think that the only reason they are not being discussed right now is because everyone is just assuming they will win the OVC's auto bid based on how dominant they have been.

As for Indiana State, the only postseason tournament we will be in is the NCAA Tournament and that would require us getting the auto-bid. We no longer accept bids to post season basketball tournaments we have to pay to be in, and we're not good enough to make the NIT.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by murraygrad05 »

murraygrad05 wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:28 am Eastern Illinois looks like a pretty dangerous team this year. Could be in a surprising position come March.
Seems like I say this very statement every year since they seem to start out strong and then by February they have crashed and burned.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by VUGrad1314 »

As a fan of mid major basketball I'd love to see Belmont in the at large conversation if they should need to be by not winning the OVC's auto bid. That said it's pretty disconcerting to me for their chances that even with only one loss all season their NET is still in the 60s which is actually a lower rating than even Wright State of the Horizon League and UC-Santa Barbara of the Big West who are both from stronger leagues according to the NET as well. It is also telling to me that Belmont will not have played a single Q1 or Q2 game. I don't mean that they don't have any wins I mean they haven't even played a single team in the top two quadrants and I'm not sure if that's going to change between now and the selection show. Compare that to their 2019 schedule where they swept a Top 50 Lipscomb team had a win over Murray State as well as Boston College and UCLA. The two schedules and situations aren't even remotely comparable in my mind. By sheer strength of schedule Belmont's only path to the dance appears to be through the OVC Tournament. I can't see a 2 loss Belmont team getting in with these metrics. This is coming from someone who believed that Murray State deserved to be in in 2015 but I just don't see it.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by 75Fan »

You're not wrong about the lack of quality wins for Belmont but the Quadrant system is set up to keep the rich rich and the poor poor IMO.

Belmont has 19 consecutive wins.

Assuming their chance of winning each game individually is 80%, then the likelihood of them winning 19 in a row is only 1.44%.

Given that there are 357 teams in division 1, and all teams had an 80% chance of winning each game individually, one can expect only 5 teams to perform at the same level that Belmont has.

That counts to me. I wish and hope it counts to the selection committee too. Not only for Belmont, but also for any outstanding non-power conference team.

I enjoy your insight and perspective VUGrad1314. Glad to have you on these forums.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

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VUGrad1314 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:11 am As a fan of mid major basketball I'd love to see Belmont in the at large conversation if they should need to be by not winning the OVC's auto bid. That said it's pretty disconcerting to me for their chances that even with only one loss all season their NET is still in the 60s which is actually a lower rating than even Wright State of the Horizon League and UC-Santa Barbara of the Big West who are both from stronger leagues according to the NET as well. It is also telling to me that Belmont will not have played a single Q1 or Q2 game. I don't mean that they don't have any wins I mean they haven't even played a single team in the top two quadrants and I'm not sure if that's going to change between now and the selection show. Compare that to their 2019 schedule where they swept a Top 50 Lipscomb team had a win over Murray State as well as Boston College and UCLA. The two schedules and situations aren't even remotely comparable in my mind. By sheer strength of schedule Belmont's only path to the dance appears to be through the OVC Tournament. I can't see a 2 loss Belmont team getting in with these metrics. This is coming from someone who believed that Murray State deserved to be in in 2015 but I just don't see it.
Spot on post right there. Again, I don’t believe anybody is saying they don’t deserve in, hell if “deserve” was the yardstick we’d have a couple more NCAA Tournament trips under our belt. Reality bites, but I see no way the selection committee lets them in with that resume and I base that on my experience watching a few selection shows over the years.
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Re: What's up in the Valley!

Post by evvracerfan »

This is going to be an interesting year for the NCAA committee - the shortened non-conference season and fewer overall games reduced the number of games mid majors played against power conference schools. I'm not trusting that the committee will take that into consideration when looking at Belmont's resume. We had a strong non-conference schedule set up prior to the season, only to see most of our marquee matchups eliminated due to schedule reduction. I would guess Belmont had several games vs. power conference schools on their schedule as well, but through no fault of their own, those games didn't get played.

The other thing working against Belmont is the number of high profile schools in the bubble discussion. At this moment Lunardi has Indiana and North Carolina barely on the right side of the bubble. Does anyone really think Belmont is getting in over those two teams? Syracuse and UConn are in the bubble talk as well. Keep in mind, Duke is only 4 spots behind Belmont (63 vs 67) in the NET rankings. In no way does Duke deserve in over Belmont, but if Duke goes on a run in the next couple of weeks you can bet they'll jump ahead of Belmont in the NET rankings. Add to that the fact that you've got several traditional powers that were highly ranked to start the season but quickly fell apart. If Michigan State or Kentucky could get on a roll and win their conference tourneys they might be taking a NCAA bid from a deserving mid-major. It used to be the other way around - upsets in mid-major tourneys leading to a power conference bubble team losing out.

I think it sucks when a team with a losing conference record gets in over a deserving mid-major. Usually all those teams have proven is that they know how to lose close games. The Quadrant system was designed as a tool to justify screwing the mid-major programs, and if that system ever starts benefitting mid-majors over power conference teams, they'll design a new system or tweak the existing one to protect the bigger schools.
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