What's up in the Valley!

[Sycamorefan96]

Honestly as a fan I only care about winning conference championships, preferably tournament so we get the auto bid. As a whole though I don't really care about the NCAA Tournament anymore. I only watch the MVC and OVC until they are eliminated and then I'm done with it. When a school like IU, who has a losing B10 record and is two games over .500 overall is being considered; that just shows how big of a joke the tournament is.

If they want to make the NCAA tourney legit again they can start by not allowing teams in that don't have at least a winning conference record and they need to give auto bids to anyone that runs the table in their conference. If they send a 2 or 3 loss Belmont team to the NIT and give IU a spot that is a big joke.

[speck]

Would not be surprised if they don't hold the ovc tournament. Regular season champ moves on.

[evvracerfan]

Honestly as a fan I only care about winning conference championships, preferably tournament so we get the auto bid. As a whole though I don't really care about the NCAA Tournament anymore. I only watch the MVC and OVC until they are eliminated and then I'm done with it. When a school like IU, who has a losing B10 record and is two games over .500 overall is being considered; that just shows how big of a joke the tournament is.

If they want to make the NCAA tourney legit again they can start by not allowing teams in that don't have at least a winning conference record and they need to give auto bids to anyone that runs the table in their conference. If they send a 2 or 3 loss Belmont team to the NIT and give IU a spot that is a big joke.

It all make$ $en$e if you know what'$ really important to the NCAA and their tourney $election proce$$.

[jcruse64]

It really IS all about the money, and especially to the NCAA.

[VUGrad1314]

Would not be surprised if they don't hold the ovc tournament. Regular season champ moves on.

That would be a smart decision by the OVC this year to be honest. Very little good can come out of the OVC Tournament being played but a lot of bad can happen. Belmont is the only team that could win a tournament game for the conference so forcing them to play three games against sub-150 NET teams just presents way more risk than reward for Belmont and therefore for the OVC. It can't help Belmont it can only hurt them and that would likely ensure beyond any doubt that the OVC is one and done in the tournament. Add in the COVID restrictions that will tamp down ticket sales and it's just not a money making proposition for the conference.

[Tick21]

Would not be surprised if they don't hold the ovc tournament. Regular season champ moves on.

That would be a smart decision by the OVC this year to be honest. Very little good can come out of the OVC Tournament being played but a lot of bad can happen. Belmont is the only team that could win a tournament game for the conference so forcing them to play three games against sub-150 NET teams just presents way more risk than reward for Belmont and therefore for the OVC. It can't help Belmont it can only hurt them and that would likely ensure beyond any doubt that the OVC is one and done in the tournament. Add in the COVID restrictions that will tamp down ticket sales and it's just not a money making proposition for the conference.

It would really be incredible if they were to make that decision now considering how the number of COVID cases have dropped in the past month, not to mention they are now selling tourney tickets.

For me, I can’t believe this year isn’t going to count as a year of eligibility. Sure is going to be putting a lot asterisks by career records which will be broken by five year players. I believe that was a rushed decision, that didn’t have to be rushed.

[VUGrad1314]

You're not wrong about the lack of quality wins for Belmont but the Quadrant system is set up to keep the rich rich and the poor poor IMO.

Belmont has 19 consecutive wins.

Assuming their chance of winning each game individually is 80%, then the likelihood of them winning 19 in a row is only 1.44%.

Given that there are 357 teams in division 1, and all teams had an 80% chance of winning each game individually, one can expect only 5 teams to perform at the same level that Belmont has.

That counts to me. I wish and hope it counts to the selection committee too. Not only for Belmont, but also for any outstanding non-power conference team.

I enjoy your insight and perspective VUGrad1314. Glad to have you on these forums.

I agree but that's why I'm so pro-MVC expansion. I want to see the MVC grab the best of the best from other regional leagues to add more Q1 and Q2 opportunities for everyone in conference and take the fight directly to the power conferences, I've long felt that the best thing mid majors can do in this climate is work to strengthen themselves by banding together whether that's through scheduling alliances or realignment to create leagues that close the gap between the power leagues and the mids. This would force the power leagues to either: 1. Expand themselves and admit more members thereby threatening their precious payouts potentially 2. Accept the existence of these stronger mid major leagues and the concomitant loss of those last several at large spots to the upper tier mid major leagues. That's the way it was before and that's the way it should be. Or 3. Keep tweaking and changing the system until it becomes so blatant and obvious what they're trying to do (as if it already isn't) that the media turns on them and starts shaming them for their collusion and openly advocating for the teams from these leagues to get their well-deserved spots.

On Belmont specifically I agree that they should probably be in the conversation if they need it because what they have done especially in a Pandemic year is nothing short of remarkable. I would hope that the committee will look favorably upon mids this year of all years who could really use the leg up that the extra cash would provide. Unfortunately, Belmont this year is in the same boat as Missouri State 2006 Murray State of 2015 Valpo of 2016 Illinois State of 2017 and St Mary's quite a few years in that their schedule is just not up to par. I have the same concerns with Drake and Loyola (to a lesser extent) this year because they don't have a lot of great non-conference wins and their best wins are arguably in conference.

What's even sadder to me is that if Belmont had accepted the MVC's overtures back in 2017, which would have brought in Murray during the Ja Morant years, not only would the MVC have had a great shot at multiple bids at least once during that timespan, there likely wouldn't have been any concern for any of these bubble teams this year because the conference would have had enough strength. That's why I kept saying I wish people would look at what the conference could be with these teams added and that Stronger Together is more than just a political slogan. As I have said before, the MVC might be strong enough to be a two bid league without Murray and Belmont just as Murray and Belmont might (and Belmont of course did) garner an at large bid without the MVC but if Murray and Belmont were to be in the MVC there would be no doubt about the league's multibid candidacy nor would Murray or Belmont have to sweat Selection Sunday as much if they lose in the conference tournament.

Everyone gets bogged down on having to split shares 12 ways instead of 10 or having a tougher path to the autobid but loses sight of the fact that splitting 2 (or even 3) shares 12 ways and getting higher more favorable seeds is a lot better than splitting 1 share 10 ways and getting a lower seed making advancement harder. The more you advance the more you build your program and the more you build your program the more prestige your program and by extension your conference gets. Why don't more people get this? That's why even though Valpo has struggled mightily and I have complained a great deal about our performance in the MVC on our board I would not wish to go back for anyone or anything and as annoyed as I am with the slow progress I am proud that Valpo took on the challenge and made the jump. I still believe it will pay off in the long run and to be quite honest it already has thanks to Loyola's run in 17-18 and we are recruiting better as a whole. I hope Murray and Belmont will have the opportunity to step up and take the challenge again soon and I hope they both say yes. That would make for a truly amazing league that is great for all parties. Thinking about all of the blue and gold we would see in St Louis especially if the Racers are good makes me smile. I haven't been to Arch Madness but I really want to go sometime. It'll be especially fun if we can add more strong brands whose fans travel well like Murray State.

Thank you so much for your kind words! I love the statistical analysis you do! I know it must take a lot of time and effort but it really gives an intelligent and informed perspective on the OVC and even other mid majors that I otherwise would not receive, I hope Valpo and Murray State are conference mates in the MVC soon so that your perspective can be shared on our board as well. I know you'd bring a lot of valuable information to the board! I have really enjoyed interacting with the Murray posters who have already migrated over there like Smidge and JoeD, I can tell that Murray State is not only a great program but also has a very loyal passionate and (most importantly) knowledgeable fanbase that would bring a lot to the MVC on and off the court. I hope it happens because both sides would benefit a lot!

[75Fan]

				
				
				
The following teams have a good shot				
at an at-large bid if they keep winning...				
				
	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
	12	+1	Loyola, IL
	28	-8	Drake
	33	NC	Belmont
				
				
The following teams have a good shot				
at a post-season tournament				
if they don't make the NCAA tournament...				
				
				
	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
	67	-14	Missouri St.
	95	+3	Indiana St.
	105	-8	E Kentucky
	132	+7	Morehead St.
	146	-7	Jacksonville St.
				
				
The following teams need to win their
conference tournament for any hopes of
playing in the post-season....


	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
	189	+10	S. Illinois
	205	+32	Bradley
	208	-7	Austin Peay
	236	-1	Evansville
	239	-33	Illinois St.
	241	NC	Valparaiso
	248	+29	Murray St.
	257	+6	N. Iowa
	288	-9	SE Missouri
	305	-7	SIU Edwardsville
	319	-7	E Illinois
	326	+6	TN Martin
	336	-2	TN State
	342	+1	TN Tech
				

[EKU05]

75fan, you may know more than I do. Do we know for sure which postseason tournaments are actually being played? I know that the CIT has already been called off, but I don't recall seeing any specific info on the NIT or the CBI. I'd love to see this EKU team get a shot at some teams that haven't studied our press all season if we don't win the OVC tournament.

[JoeD]

The NIT cut their number of teams in half from 32 to 16, all in NYC

[Sycamorefan96]

EIU just beat Austin Peay. The problem for us is that EKU completely sucks today. They're down 50-24 at halftime. 50 to freaking 24 to SEMO. Unbelievable... We need SEMO to lose so we can get that #8 seed.

[Sycamorefan96]

94-72 SEMO over EKU. EKU is already transitioning to ASUN quality play.

[75Fan]

75fan, you may know more than I do. Do we know for sure which postseason tournaments are actually being played? I know that the CIT has already been called off, but I don't recall seeing any specific info on the NIT or the CBI. I'd love to see this EKU team get a shot at some teams that haven't studied our press all season if we don't win the OVC tournament.

Hi EKU05!

Thanks for the question.

My answer is.....

No.

I don't know how many - if any - post-season tournaments there will be. I'm just going off of what is normal.

Sorry I don't have more information for you but I've spent about 60 hours just this week looking at teams and numbers and schedules etc... I do this because I love the challenge and I know that others like to have a little more info before and after the game.

[75Fan]

				
				
				
The following teams have a good shot				
at an at-large bid if they keep winning...				

RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
16	+4	Loyola, IL
31	+3	Drake
33	NC	Belmont


The following teams normally have
a good shot at a post-season tournament
if they don't make the NCAA tournament...


RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
70	+3	Missouri St.
94	-1	Indiana St.
120	-12	Morehead St.
124	+19	E Kentucky
143	-3	Jacksonville St.


The following teams need to win
their conference tournament
to play in the post-season.....


RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
181	-8	S. Illinois
206	+1	Bradley
236	+28	Austin Peay
232	-4	Evansville
238	-1	Illinois St.
235	-6	Valparaiso
239	-9	Murray St.
254	-3	N. Iowa
289	+1	SE Missouri
 310	+5	SIU Edwardsville
311	-8	E Illinois
327	+1	TN Martin
342	+6	TN State
343	+1	TN Tech

[mojoliet]

Thank you so much for your kind words! I love the statistical analysis you do! I know it must take a lot of time and effort but it really gives an intelligent and informed perspective on the OVC and even other mid majors that I otherwise would not receive, I hope Valpo and Murray State are conference mates in the MVC soon so that your perspective can be shared on our board as well. I know you'd bring a lot of valuable information to the board!

I second that. I know the really good posters would get a kick out of 75Fan’s posts. RacerJoeD is respected over there.

[75Fan]

				
				
				
The following teams have a good shot				
at an at-large bid if they keep winning...				

RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
6	-25	Drake *
18	+2	Loyola, IL
34	+1	Belmont


The following teams normally have
a good shot at a post-season tournament
if they don't make the NCAA tournament...


RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
67	-3	Missouri St.
96	+2	Indiana St.
117	-3	Morehead St.
120	-4	E Kentucky
153	+10	Jacksonville St.


The following teams need to win
their conference tournament
to play in the post-season.....


RANK	CHANGE	TEAM
200	+19	S. Illinois *
206	+1	Bradley
235	-6	Valparaiso
238	-1	Illinois St.
239	-9	Murray St.
241	+9	Evansville
254	NC	N. Iowa
262	+26	Austin Peay *
289	+1	SE Missouri
308	+19	SIU Edwardsville *
313	+2	E Illinois
333	+6	TN Martin
342	-1	TN Tech
343	+1	TN State



* Includes data that didn't get included with the last update.

[speck]

Looking at last week Collegeinsider mid major rankings, 3 ovc teams were in the top 25, we weren't one of them.

[atlantaracer]

Looking at last week Collegeinsider mid major rankings, 3 ovc teams were in the top 25, we weren't one of them.

But look at the bright side, regardless of what happens the rest of the year, we cannot have a losing record. Not a high bar for this team’s expectations, but it wasn’t so long ago that we broke that trend.

[Handicap]

Looking at last week Collegeinsider mid major rankings, 3 ovc teams were in the top 25, we weren't one of them.

But look at the bright side, regardless of what happens the rest of the year, we cannot have a losing record. Not a high bar for this team’s expectations, but it wasn’t so long ago that we broke that trend.

That's so sad that's the bright side. When did our expectations drop so much?

[75Fan]

This information is current as of midnight Feb. 23.

The following teams have a good shot
at an at-large bid if they keep winning...

	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM		
	5	-1	Drake		
	17	-1	Loyola, IL	
	34	NC	Belmont		


The following teams have a good shot
at a post-season tournament
if they don't make the NCAA tournament...

	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM		
	68	+1	Missouri St.	
	97	+1	Indiana St.	
	114	-3	Morehead St.	
	117	-3	E Kentucky	
	152	-1	Jacksonville St.


The following teams have to win their
conference tournaments to have any
chance at post-season play.

	RANK	CHANGE	TEAM		
	195	-5	S. Illinois	
	200	-1	Bradley		
	217	-18	Valparaiso	
	235	-3	Illinois St.	
	239	NC	Murray St.	
	242	+1	Evansville	
	249	-5	N. Iowa		
	262	NC	Austin Peay	
	313	+5	SE Missouri	
	310	-3	E Illinois	
	321	+4	SIU Edwardsville
	332	-1	TN Martin	
	341	-1	TN Tech		
	343	NC	TN State