Post Season Options and Virus Discussion

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75Fan
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by 75Fan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:13 pm

Thanks Tick!

If not for your question, I wouldn't have found the following site that gives near-real-time updates on the corona virus situation around the world.

As of this posting, there are 421,792 Total Confirmed Cases globally.
Of this number, 18,883 have died from the virus. ( 4.48% )
107,762 have recovered from the virus.
The other 314,030 are active cases. I haven't found any information on case severity.

Here's the links.....

mobile link: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 62e5c06e61

computer: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Kudos to the people involved in putting this together and providing the information! :salute:
Last edited by 75Fan on Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by 75Fan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:17 pm

Just to show the speed of information updates, as of this post here are the numbers.....

422,652 / 18,901 ( 4.47% )

This is 4 minutes of data fwiw.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by smidge34 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:20 pm

JoeD wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:12 pm
Looking at similar numbers. The numbers don’t shrink when ppl recover. Currently I have these:

54,823 cases, 778 fatalities so far. 1.42% (Flu .1%)


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Again 1.42% of those tested, not overall. That matters.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:49 pm

Well there could be 750,000 total infections and it would still have a higher fatality rate in the US than the seasonal flu.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by smidge34 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:51 pm

Yep and a lot more people will get it without a vaccine, I’m just saying. Frankly the contagion rate is scarier than an unreliable death rate.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:53 pm

Agreed. But a vaccine is 18 months away at the earliest. Hence all the pain in the ass distancing.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by smidge34 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:56 pm

It just got real real.

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CoViD

Post by 75Fan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:43 am

SOURCE: Center for Systems Science and Engineering, John's Hopkins


                     TOTAL |  ACTIVE | DECEASED | RECOVERED
KENTUCKY                   35 |       ? |      1   |       ? 
UNITED STATES          55,238 |  54,082 |    802   |     354 
WORLD                 436,159 | 404,664 | 19,648   | 111,847 


LINK: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by SwedeDRC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:25 am

You lost a digit 75. The recovered number is 111,895.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by 75Fan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:35 am

SwedeDRC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:25 am
You lost a digit 75. The recovered number is 111,895.
Thanks Swede! I fixed it!
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by Tick21 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:37 am

JoeD wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:53 pm
Agreed. But a vaccine is 18 months away at the earliest. Hence all the pain in the ass distancing.
Another couple of questions: Do we know the virus will be here next year? This fall? I’m not trying to answer my own questions, but early on I heard they didn’t know how long this would be here, but the person I was listening to said the longer it lingers the weaker it’s effects. Is this true or false?

I believe the majority of the panic around this virus is the unknown. People speak (like the weatherman) like they know, when they may have some idea but they don’t know for sure what to expect in regards to how contagious, how deadly, or how long it will last. All you have to do is look at the different countries around the world and see the different results. Example: Just look at Germany and Italy. Which one does the media focus on, the worst case scenario.

One more thing. In the past, these viruses (West Nile, Swine fu, etc.) have had the medical communities scrambling for a vaccination, before it happened, the virus was gone. That’s the scenario I’m hoping and praying for, but I don’t know for sure and I don’t think no one else knows either.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by smidge34 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:40 am

Nobody knows the number infected and/or recovered. Nobody.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by Tick21 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:54 am

smidge34 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:51 pm
Yep and a lot more people will get it without a vaccine, I’m just saying. Frankly the contagion rate is scarier than an unreliable death rate.
I 100% agree with this. I can prove this with two states. The state of New York (mainly around New York City) has less than one percent fatality rate, even though almost 50% of the cases in the USA are in that state, while in the state of Washington (where it was the first state where it exploded) has the highest fatality rate with this virus. Why the difference of the huge fatality rate in these two states? It’s simple, the rate of testing. In NY. where it’s the biggest problem, there is a lot more testing, and people who maybe aren’t as severe are getting tested there where they aren’t in other places. In Washington, it was new and testing wasn’t as readily available, so only the most severe were being tested in the beginning (fewer tests).

One other point to make. The government is recommending only testing if your having breathing issues, for others to self quarantine, and I’ve heard 80% of the cases will not require medical attention. If that’s true, it’s not nearly as deadly as the numbers being floated out there, but as Smidge keeps pointing out, it is more contagious than the numbers show.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by speck » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:11 am

One more in Murray.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 am

Tick21 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:54 am

[quote=smidge34 post_id=180919 time=<a href="tel:1585108272">1585108272</a> user_id=45]
Yep and a lot more people will get it without a vaccine, I’m just saying. Frankly the contagion rate is scarier than an unreliable death rate.
I 100% agree with this. I can prove this with two states. The state of New York (mainly around New York City) has less than one percent fatality rate, even though almost 50% of the cases in the USA are in that state, while in the state of Washington (where it was the first state where it exploded) has the highest fatality rate with this virus. Why the difference of the huge fatality rate in these two states? It’s simple, the rate of testing. In NY. where it’s the biggest problem, there is a lot more testing, and people who maybe aren’t as severe are getting tested there where they aren’t in other places. In Washington, it was new and testing wasn’t as readily available, so only the most severe were being tested in the beginning (fewer tests).

One other point to make. The government is recommending only testing if your having breathing issues, for others to self quarantine, and I’ve heard 80% of the cases will not require medical attention. If that’s true, it’s not nearly as deadly as the numbers being floated out there, but as Smidge keeps pointing out, it is more contagious than the numbers show.
[/quote]

Yes and No. in Washington it hit the most susceptible group to fatality whereas it is community spread in NY, and depending upon their testing prototcols, might include multiple test of the same people (health care workers/first responders for example). Without knowing who they are testing, it’s tough to make firm judgements.

As for how long it will be here, no one knows. It’s rate of change is reportedly slow which means that a vaccine should help tremendously, plus it’s second pass through shouldn’t be as deadly. However, it is still an RNA virus and they mutate quickly and sometimes drastically sometimes not. Either way, until the entire population has been infected, or vaccinated, the fatality rate will be much higher than after. The goal of “flattening the curve” isn’t to keep people from being infected, it’s to keep from overwhelming the medical system. Success in that would also buy time to get a vaccine ready.
Last edited by JoeD on Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by sparekracer » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:31 am

55,000 confirmed cases in the US out of a population of about 320 million?

I mean... don't get me wrong, 55,000 is a lot of cases... but 0.017% of the population?

There's got to be a lot more cases of this than 55,000. And how many of those are just staying home, treating it like a cold or the flu, and going about their business?

Is the rationale behind scaring everyone about this virus really warranted?

Don't get me wrong, limiting contact with others... especially if you have it or think you might have it... or just ANYTIME you are sick is a good thing. And certainly there is a subset of the population that is more vulnerable to it than others and nobody knows if they are going to pass it on to people in that subset population. But I'm just having trouble making a lot of sense of the numbers.

I think we're lacking a lot of perspective on this. The news channels are loving this because everyone is glued to their TV or website reading about all of the worst cases of this.

I'd be real interested to see an antibody test done in a few weeks to see just how many people HAD the virus and didn't know it (or didn't feel bad enough to warrant getting tested).
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by Tick21 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:12 pm

JoeD wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 am
Tick21 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:54 am
[quote=smidge34 post_id=180919 time=<a href="tel:1585108272">1585108272</a> user_id=45]
Yep and a lot more people will get it without a vaccine, I’m just saying. Frankly the contagion rate is scarier than an unreliable death rate.
I 100% agree with this. I can prove this with two states. The state of New York (mainly around New York City) has less than one percent fatality rate, even though almost 50% of the cases in the USA are in that state, while in the state of Washington (where it was the first state where it exploded) has the highest fatality rate with this virus. Why the difference of the huge fatality rate in these two states? It’s simple, the rate of testing. In NY. where it’s the biggest problem, there is a lot more testing, and people who maybe aren’t as severe are getting tested there where they aren’t in other places. In Washington, it was new and testing wasn’t as readily available, so only the most severe were being tested in the beginning (fewer tests).

Hey, this is Tick. I wrote this. How did Joe get credit for my post. Story of my life - LOL

One other point to make. The government is recommending only testing if your having breathing issues, for others to self quarantine, and I’ve heard 80% of the cases will not require medical attention. If that’s true, it’s not nearly as deadly as the numbers being floated out there, but as Smidge keeps pointing out, it is more contagious than the numbers show.
Yes and No. in Washington it hit the most susceptible group to fatality whereas it is community spread in NY, and depending upon their testing prototcols, might include multiple test of the same people (health care workers/first responders for example). Without knowing who they are testing, it’s tough to make firm judgements.

As for how long it will be here, no one knows. It’s rate of change is reportedly slow which means that a vaccine should help tremendously, plus it’s second pass through shouldn’t be as deadly. However, it is still an RNA virus and they mutate quickly and sometimes drastically sometimes not. Either way, until the entire population has been infected, or vaccinated, the fatality rate will be much higher than after. The goal of “flattening the curve” isn’t to keep people from being infected, it’s to keep from overwhelming the medical system. Success in that would also buy time to get a vaccine ready.
[/quote]
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by Tick21 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:14 pm

I think Joe and me (Tick) have traded Identities on this board. Joe behave yourself. LOL.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by JoeD » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:34 pm

sparekracer wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:31 am
55,000 confirmed cases in the US out of a population of about 320 million?

I mean... don't get me wrong, 55,000 is a lot of cases... but 0.017% of the population?

There's got to be a lot more cases of this than 55,000. And how many of those are just staying home, treating it like a cold or the flu, and going about their business?

Is the rationale behind scaring everyone about this virus really warranted?

Don't get me wrong, limiting contact with others... especially if you have it or think you might have it... or just ANYTIME you are sick is a good thing. And certainly there is a subset of the population that is more vulnerable to it than others and nobody knows if they are going to pass it on to people in that subset population. But I'm just having trouble making a lot of sense of the numbers.

I think we're lacking a lot of perspective on this. The news channels are loving this because everyone is glued to their TV or website reading about all of the worst cases of this.

I'd be real interested to see an antibody test done in a few weeks to see just how many people HAD the virus and didn't know it (or didn't feel bad enough to warrant getting tested).
On March 1st there were 75 confirmed cases in the US. As of now we have over 60,000. It’s been 24 1/2 days. That’s why there is a quarantine. To save lives. If 50% of the US got the disease there would be about 150,000,000 sick. If the fatality rate was only .1% that would mean 150,000 dead. That’s before the loss of life because the healthcare industry wouldn’t be able to treat everyone. At this rate, they aren’t thinking 50%, they’re thinking 80% could get it. And they are seeing a 1% fatality rate when treated. That would mean 250,000,000 sick and 2,500,000 dead. That’s before we overwhelm the healthcare industry and run out of respirators.

If that scares you, that means you are a reasonable person. This thing is deadly serious. I hope people are taking it seriously, because it is serious. I hope it doesn’t take the loss of family and friends to drive it home, but I’m afraid it will.
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Re: Post Season Options

Post by runningracer » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:31 pm

Definitely should be taken seriously. However, the numbers I assume are from a projected program. Not disputing the numbers but they seem to be related to a worst case scenario. I don't believe we will reach those numbers for several reasons. First, while the numbers will continue to rise, they don't tell us the number that are recovered. Second, there are different degrees of severity, with some who test positive, having little effect from the virus, but they can pass it on. Third, once you recover, there is a degree of immunity to the virus. Fourth, the chlorocoquine treatment appears to be working for those who have received it, as administered by doctors in a hospital setting, along with a z pack. This is supported by some U.S. doctors, and seems to be the case with its use in China, France, and Italy. There has been a problem with getting enough pills, but a company in Israel is now supplying the United States. The biggest problem with the drug is it can cause irregular heartbeat, so should only be administered in an observed setting, under continual doctors care. The U.S. needs more, and faster testing to find out who has it before they expose others.
Last edited by runningracer on Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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