Sagarin

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Sagarin

Post by smidge34 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:36 pm

According to Ken Pomeroy the best rating system is Sagarin and it’s the most accurate imo, especially by mid season. In a “down” year I still expect us to remain in the upper 50% of D1 at a minimum, around 175 or better. The conference is awful this season as a whole.

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http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm
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Re: Sagarin

Post by wkeown » Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:02 pm

I would have to agree somewhat with our current ranking, with Drake, Missouri State, and LaSalle all above us due to the head-to-head losses. But I am absolutely baffled where Belmont is getting all this "street cred" from, especially when 111-ranked Stephen F. Austin beats #1 ranked at the time Duke at Cameron Indoor Arena and has a 9-2 record, while Belmont sits at 107 with an 8-5 record and their BEST win is against Western Kentucky at 104.

At this rate, I guess we shouldn't complain as we will need all that conquered street cred on our resume to get in the NCAA Tournament with better than a 15-seed.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by smidge34 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:10 pm

Simply because Belmont started out way ahead of SFA. I was crying at the start of the season about how Belmont started out with a good lead on us before the first tipped ball. That’s the inherent flaw in these computer rankings and why they get better and better with more input data. By late February Sagarin is pretty close and it’s infinitely better than most of the others.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by popeyejonesfan » Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:02 pm

I agree with all the above posts. I’m sure you all know how much I enjoy griping about where Belmont is ranked in the polls. I complain every year. But, a loss at home to #340 SIU-E, how are they so close to the top 100? Are they using Martian math to determine how to rank everyone? Only rankings I would trust would have to come from 75.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by smidge34 » Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:10 pm

Looks like a 15 pt spread according to Sagarin. We generally need to win by their spread or more to maintain or move up.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by 75Fan » Sat Jan 04, 2020 5:32 pm

popeyejonesfan wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:02 pm
I agree with all the above posts. I’m sure you all know how much I enjoy griping about where Belmont is ranked in the polls. I complain every year. But, a loss at home to #340 SIU-E, how are they so close to the top 100? Are they using Martian math to determine how to rank everyone? Only rankings I would trust would have to come from 75.
Think of most of the ratings systems as a 15-game weighted moving average, with the last 5 games played accounting for just over half of their score.

After 15 games the bias should go away.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by wkeown » Sat Jan 04, 2020 8:16 pm

I would love to see our 15 game bias kick IN sometime. 2 straight OVC championships apparently don't equal to Belmont's poll bias.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by 75Fan » Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:41 pm

It did when we lost 2 of 3 in Florida and lost close games to Missori State and Evansville.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by smidge34 » Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:37 pm

smidge34 wrote:
Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:10 pm
Looks like a 15 pt spread according to Sagarin. We generally need to win by their spread or more to maintain or move up.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by fmftballmgr » Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:42 pm

Belmont being ahead of us no matter how figured hopefully will help us out more when we beat them
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Re: Sagarin

Post by wkeown » Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:35 am

Ha! I know we are dealing with fractions of a percent and variables from 353 teams, but Belmont's ranking and point total actually went up from the previous week after a home loss to SIU-e (107/76.73 to 100/77.49). I believe they are cashing in some of their 'Cachet" points.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by bjhracer » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:14 am

wkeown wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:35 am
Ha! I know we are dealing with fractions of a percent and variables from 353 teams, but Belmont's ranking and point total actually went up from the previous week after a home loss to SIU-e (107/76.73 to 100/77.49). I believe they are cashing in some of their 'Cachet" points.
How is that even possible?
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Re: Sagarin

Post by smidge34 » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:16 am

Belmont went down significantly after losing to SIUe, from the 80s to 107. They went from 107 to 100 after hammering EIU by more than the spread, same as us. Had they beat EIU by less than the Sagarin spread they would have went down.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by racerlover » Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:41 am

Is that showing the OVC as the 27th ranked conference? If so, I guess that's better than the RPI ranking of 30th out of 32. Bravo OVC. Bravo. The OVC is so damn frustrating and embarrassing.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by wkeown » Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:00 pm

I definitely understand the point you are making, Smidge. You are much smarter than me regarding this stuff and I am sure your assessment is correct on how the rankings work. I definitely agree that the Sagarin has consistently produced more accurate results over the years. I guess my beef is the poll bias in the first place.

After all this time, and the many competitive games in the tourney that we have been in, Murray still has to win out the OOC schedule AND win the OVC tournament for it to receive an at-large bid. The only times our national ranking has dramatically affected our seeding was in 2012 and 1998, when we were ranked, or just short of, the top 25 in votes. Even so, I could guarantee if we had not won the conference championship those years, we would not have even gotten an at-large bid. Which brings up my next point.

Our program, which except for Gonzaga, Butler, Wichita State, and St. Mary's, is consistently one of the only mid-majors to compete for an NCAA bid almost every year. You would think our consistency would have created at least some foundational sway in the polls. Belmont has only 8 appearances - almost HALF of what Murray State has, and every year, it seems they start out ranked higher than Murray.

I still think we should always be considered THE top dog in the conference. We should be starting out in the 70's and 80's each year in both polls. Not Belmont. Belmont has not earned that yet.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by smidge34 » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:04 pm

wkeown wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:00 pm
I definitely understand the point you are making, Smidge. You are much smarter than me regarding this stuff and I am sure your assessment is correct on how the rankings work. I definitely agree that the Sagarin has consistently produced more accurate results over the years. I guess my beef is the poll bias in the first place.
I wasn’t really making any point just clarifying that the first Sagarin screenshot where Belmont was 107 was taken and posted Saturday afternoon, after their loss to SIUe and the second one where they’re 100 was taken after they beat EIU.

Agreed on that initial poll bias. If the bias does indeed go away 15 games in they should be dropping like a rock in a couple games. We shall see.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by evvracerfan » Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:42 pm

wkeown wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:00 pm
I definitely understand the point you are making, Smidge. You are much smarter than me regarding this stuff and I am sure your assessment is correct on how the rankings work. I definitely agree that the Sagarin has consistently produced more accurate results over the years. I guess my beef is the poll bias in the first place.

After all this time, and the many competitive games in the tourney that we have been in, Murray still has to win out the OOC schedule AND win the OVC tournament for it to receive an at-large bid. The only times our national ranking has dramatically affected our seeding was in 2012 and 1998, when we were ranked, or just short of, the top 25 in votes. Even so, I could guarantee if we had not won the conference championship those years, we would not have even gotten an at-large bid. Which brings up my next point.

Our program, which except for Gonzaga, Butler, Wichita State, and St. Mary's, is consistently one of the only mid-majors to compete for an NCAA bid almost every year. You would think our consistency would have created at least some foundational sway in the polls. Belmont has only 8 appearances - almost HALF of what Murray State has, and every year, it seems they start out ranked higher than Murray.

I still think we should always be considered THE top dog in the conference. We should be starting out in the 70's and 80's each year in both polls. Not Belmont. Belmont has not earned that yet.
The "pre-season bias" people are discussing here has nothing to do with how many times a team has made the tourney in the past, how deep they've gone, reputation, etc. That only occurs in the popularity polls, not the computer rankings. Before the season starts no one has any stats to base the current computer ratings on, so they look at what the team's ratings were the year before, how much they lost off that team, and what is the anticipated contribution from new players. As some have mentioned, that element of the ratings lessens with each game as actual current year stats are available. By now those pre-season numbers are all but gone and have very little impact on computer ratings.

The difference you are seeing now is based upon our really bad strength of schedule. According to Sagarin Murray State currently has the 346th toughest schedule in the nation - meaning only 7 programs in D1 have played worse schedules than us (Belmont's schedule is rated 289, 57 spots higher than ours). The games against Bob's Barber College (I didn't create that phrase but I really like it) are contributing to this rating, as is the fact that MTSU and SIU are way off from where they were in years past. Unfortunately the OVC has 5 programs ranked in the 300's, so our strength of schedule is going to stay in the 300's for the rest of the season.

In reality, all of this means very little since we play in a one bid league (last year being an exception). Finish in the top 2 in the OVC and then win 2 games at the Ford Center and we dance. The only impact a computer ranking has on us would be the seed we receive if we make the NCAA. Regarding that, I really hate that the UE program appears to be going down the toilet days after we lost to them. If they finish last in the MVC that loss could drop our seed a line or two. On the other hand, it could be worse - UK has a lot more at stake regarding seeding and they have the same issue (and their loss was at home).
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Re: Sagarin

Post by popeyejonesfan » Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:29 pm

I enjoyed reading everyone’s comments. Still confused how Sagarin or any poll could have Belmont currently at “#99. Schedule strength around #290. Best wins against #111 WKU and #128 BCU. Horrible losses to #196 I’ll St. and #333 SIU-E at home. Struggled to beat #242 Lipscomb twice by a combined 11 points. The math makes no sense.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by popeyejonesfan » Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:38 pm

evvracerfan wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:42 pm
[quote=wkeown post_id=178137 time=1578337222 user_id=1503

After all this time, and the many competitive games in the tourney that we have been in, Murray still has to win out the OOC schedule AND win the OVC tournament for it to receive an at-large bid. The only times our national ranking has dramatically affected our seeding was in 2012 and 1998, when we were ranked, or just short of, the top 25 in votes. Even so, I could guarantee if we had not won the conference championship those years, we would not have even gotten an at-large bid. Which brings up my next point.

I get your point. But, in 2012, we beat 3 teams that went on to be seeded #8 or better in the NCAA tournament. Memphis, St Mary’s and Southern Miss. We only lost 1 game all year. We had an at large wrapped up in my opinion.
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Re: Sagarin

Post by wkeown » Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:58 pm

popeyejonesfan wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:38 pm
evvracerfan wrote:
Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:42 pm
[quote=wkeown post_id=178137 time=1578337222 user_id=1503

After all this time, and the many competitive games in the tourney that we have been in, Murray still has to win out the OOC schedule AND win the OVC tournament for it to receive an at-large bid. The only times our national ranking has dramatically affected our seeding was in 2012 and 1998, when we were ranked, or just short of, the top 25 in votes. Even so, I could guarantee if we had not won the conference championship those years, we would not have even gotten an at-large bid. Which brings up my next point.

I get your point. But, in 2012, we beat 3 teams that went on to be seeded #8 or better in the NCAA tournament. Memphis, St Mary’s and Southern Miss. We only lost 1 game all year. We had an at large wrapped up in my opinion.
I too definitely believed they deserved an at-large that year. They were ranked for most of the year and were climbing until the Tenn. State loss. Thanks heavens the Committee didn’t have to decide. Its pretty well proven that there is a bias when it comes to selecting teams. It’s about money and having a valid reason to justify why they select a Power 5 over the others. That loss to Tennessee State could have doomed us had we not won the tourney over that same Tenn. St. team.
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