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Strange Math

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RacerSurveyor
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Strange Math

Post by RacerSurveyor » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:47 pm

kenpom.com-2018.12.06-21-29-14.png
Can someone explain this??? :shrug:

ILL is getting its butt kicked in OOC (2/7) but still higher ranked than Pitt who has a better record (7/2)... Is Kenpom saying that the bottom-rung B10 > ACC? Or is there some special Diff Eq being applied to this ranking algorithm?
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Re: Strange Math

Post by walleye14 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:17 am

They do have the 13th hardest schedule in the nation so far.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by speck » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:00 am

A win over a weak team doesn't mean much when it comes to their rankings. A close loss to a good team means a lot.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by FijiRacer » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:14 pm

KenPom rewards teams for playing great schedules. Pitt has played a bunch of bad teams and Saint Louis/Iowa but have won some. Illinois has played: Gonzaga, Iowa St., Xavier, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State.

Point differential makes a big difference. Kenpom also calculates a luck statistic and a few more cool ones that don't knock teams horribly for off-nights. If a team is normally a 50% 2pt shot team and they shoot 25% and lose by just a couple baskets they may actually rise in the rankings.


Also keep in mind one of our wins (playing a non-D1 opponent) actually costs us in Kenpom's rankings. I can't remember exactly where he stated it in one of his blogs but he does penalize for this in a few ways:

a) Knocks you for basically playing the ranked 354th team (which even if we beat 100-0 wouldn't help us much in his rankings)

b) Takes an opportunity to play a quality opponent off the schedule and thus 3% or so of our schedule results in no progress (a potential 10-12 rank "move up").
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Re: Strange Math

Post by smidge34 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:54 pm

IMHO Sagarin hits the mark closest by season’s end.

PS no computer or program can ever account for the human element.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by speck » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:39 pm

I wish somebody would explain why in the world why we are playing Bethel in December.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by smidge34 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:20 pm

We have been playing this game for quite some time now just before the conference opener. Honestly it’s been a welcomed game particularly one season recently, a couple years back right before Morehead when we were battling some injuries. Call it a get back in the rhythm game after Christmas break and before the conference schedule when you’re due for a letdown.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by basher » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:49 pm

You might as well just have a really good shirts vs skins practice in the north gym to get ready for conference play. I mean, here's Bethel's most recent opponent: http://www.bethelathletics.com/SIDHelp/ ... /20/6/7019

If it was about getting money, maybe we should have the Bass Anglers put on a December boat show.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by speck » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:11 pm

Smidge is probably right, but for the price season tickets cost I sure would like a little competition instead of teams like this.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by smidge34 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:23 pm

Students are gone and it falls between Christmas and New Years Day, a double whammy since the crowd will likely be minimal AND getting a quality opponent to come on the road to Murray, KY the last week of December smack dab in middle of the holidays and just before the conference season would be a chore I’m betting. I guess we could have went 12 days between games after Auburn on the 22nd and Head on the 3rd of January. Or pay Bethel, a nearby college team willing to play you at that time. Ain’t hard to figure if you really think about it.
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Re: Strange Math

Post by FijiRacer » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:49 pm

basher wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:49 pm
You might as well just have a really good shirts vs skins practice in the north gym to get ready for conference play. I mean, here's Bethel's most recent opponent: http://www.bethelathletics.com/SIDHelp/ ... /20/6/7019

If it was about getting money, maybe we should have the Bass Anglers put on a December boat show.
Wow -- Looked at the first name on that box score and for a solid minute thought that Bethel played against a women's team.
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