RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Racer2112 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:35 pm

JoeD wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:35 pm
You make good points and a big lineup would be a short time measure, not something that we would employ full time.

Worrying about "clogging the lane" would be an issue if we didn't have bigs coming out of the post to set screens, with the other big sealing his man and allowing the ball handler to get to the hole. If the defense were to collapse onto the post to stop the drive, we would have kickout options who could knock down shots. (Either Brown or Eaves and as a third option, KJ)

You could also run out the bigs, emptying the post of bigs and allowing Smith to drive the lane or the baseline, or allowing rolls to the post for KJ, or dribble penetration from Brown or Eaves.

Again, this would not be a wholesale change to the offense, more of a wrinkle to play against teams with a big time shotblocker, or a team that doesn't shoot particularly well from the perimeter, etc.
Pretty sure we're just going to agree to disagree on this one.

We haven't shown the ability to pull up off picks and hit 3's yet (not saying we won't), but until we do I'm having my big sag off every screen, and pull the guard through, if that lineup is out there.

If I'm the other team Anthony, Nell, Gilmore, and Demond can go wherever they want, I'm leaving my rim protectors in the paint.

It might still be a fun wrinkle to try out, but I'm firmly in the skeptical camp. I would love to eat crow on this one. I want to see enough minutes for all of our bigs.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by smidge34 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:54 pm

Good stuff y’all
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by JoeD » Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:33 pm

Racer2112 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:35 pm
JoeD wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:35 pm
You make good points and a big lineup would be a short time measure, not something that we would employ full time.

Worrying about "clogging the lane" would be an issue if we didn't have bigs coming out of the post to set screens, with the other big sealing his man and allowing the ball handler to get to the hole. If the defense were to collapse onto the post to stop the drive, we would have kickout options who could knock down shots. (Either Brown or Eaves and as a third option, KJ)

You could also run out the bigs, emptying the post of bigs and allowing Smith to drive the lane or the baseline, or allowing rolls to the post for KJ, or dribble penetration from Brown or Eaves.

Again, this would not be a wholesale change to the offense, more of a wrinkle to play against teams with a big time shotblocker, or a team that doesn't shoot particularly well from the perimeter, etc.
Pretty sure we're just going to agree to disagree on this one.

We haven't shown the ability to pull up off picks and hit 3's yet (not saying we won't), but until we do I'm having my big sag off every screen, and pull the guard through, if that lineup is out there.

If I'm the other team Anthony, Nell, Gilmore, and Demond can go wherever they want, I'm leaving my rim protectors in the paint.

It might still be a fun wrinkle to try out, but I'm firmly in the skeptical camp. I would love to eat crow on this one. I want to see enough minutes for all of our bigs.
We don't have to agree. Part of the "message board experience".

But what you are describing is a zone defense, and If we have Brown (52% from 3 this season), Eaves (36% from 3 last season), and KJ (37.5% from 3 this season) on the floor, Im of the mindset that we are going to get positive results more often than not, especially in a wrinkle that we exploit when our scout sees a matchup that we like.

the best part of putting in a wrinkle like that is that if something isn't working, you are one sub away from a different lineup.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Dan T » Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:28 pm

Racer2112 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:24 pm

I'm excited about all of our bigs, but the freshman may just have to wait his turn or play so well he forces someone else to the bench. Basketball isn't played like it was in the 80's anymore, if there was more efficiency in 3 bigs at once then we would see it at higher levels.
Back when there was no 3 point shot line, three bigs was the norm. When the line came in at 19.5 feet, two bigs became the norm for obvious reasons. Now that the line has moved further out, the reward for going bigger has gone up. If you took the 3 point line away altogether, I think most everyone would run three bigs except when they couldn't keep them out there due to fouls/injuries/etc.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by 75Fan » Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:06 pm

smidge34 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:00 am
02Racer wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:41 am
Man, I love Gilmore’s game. He always seems to come up with big plays on both ends at the perfect time.
I almost posted in response earlier if you believe in those NET numbers go look at Gilmore’s negative and then never look at them seriously again.
OR.......

Realize that to err is human and the data might have been corrupted. :D

In any event, there was a problem and it has been fixed. :thumbup:

Thanks for bringing it to my attention. :salute: :thank:

:goracers:
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by runningracer » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:24 am

To clarify, I wasn't talking about playing three bigs full time. I was looking more at 5-6 minutes a game. The reasons are, if we are having a tough game from the three, to get the bigs more time, and to give the defense a different look to cause matchup problems. I have enough faith in our points, and Brown, to believe they could make it work from the perimeter, though Smith is still trying to find his shot. I believe it will come. Chico, in my opinion appears to be more efficient, and comfortable running the offense. This may have to do with the length of time that Smith has been injured, as much as anything else. I believe he will get better as he moves through the season. After the problems we had last year when Ja had to come out, it is nice to have three guys that can play the point, though Camba needs some more development.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by murraygrad05 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:13 am

I personally do not think Smith is quick enough to guard the perimeter. Not saying he’s not quick for his size, but his fouls the other night were because he was playing defense with his hands because he got beat and was a step behind.

If Gilmore can develop a mid range game he’d be unstoppable.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Racer2112 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:14 am

JoeD wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:33 pm
We don't have to agree. Part of the "message board experience".

But what you are describing is a zone defense, and If we have Brown (52% from 3 this season), Eaves (36% from 3 last season), and KJ (37.5% from 3 this season) on the floor, Im of the mindset that we are going to get positive results more often than not, especially in a wrinkle that we exploit when our scout sees a matchup that we like.

the best part of putting in a wrinkle like that is that if something isn't working, you are one sub away from a different lineup.
I am in no way describing a zone defense. I am talking about sagging off and not caring if some players attempt an 18 foot jumper. That'd be a good defensive possession for me. If that's zone then so is staying in help side and switching on screens. Sample size from this season and Eaves sample size (and competition level when he actually got in the game last season) is too small for me to take those numbers as gospel truth. I fully expect all of them to be above 35% deep shooters, but part of their success will be tied to our spacing. If we don't get our spacing right then their men won't have to be in help (at least not as much) which means we won't be open for 3's or they will have time to close out and make our shots more difficult.

Well no crap if the scout team sees something we can exploit then we should throw out a weird lineup. We could go super small against certain match-ups with Quan, Chico, Eaves, Tevin, and Holiday but I wouldn't advise throwing that line on the floor every game either. This discussion on 3 bigs wasn't started as a "wrinkle" but as a way to get Demond consistent minutes, and I don't see this as something can be pulled out every game for that purpose.
Dan T wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:28 pm
Racer2112 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:24 pm

I'm excited about all of our bigs, but the freshman may just have to wait his turn or play so well he forces someone else to the bench. Basketball isn't played like it was in the 80's anymore, if there was more efficiency in 3 bigs at once then we would see it at higher levels.
Back when there was no 3 point shot line, three bigs was the norm. When the line came in at 19.5 feet, two bigs became the norm for obvious reasons. Now that the line has moved further out, the reward for going bigger has gone up. If you took the 3 point line away altogether, I think most everyone would run three bigs except when they couldn't keep them out there due to fouls/injuries/etc.
The NBA line is 23 ft 9 inches and they are only taking more and more 3's and going with smaller or at least better distance shooting lineups. The reward for going bigger has not gone up (at least not much) 3 point shots are still worth more than 2 and the line isn't that much further back for these guys. The 3 point line is never going away at this point, so I'm not sure why that matters.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by racerlover » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:28 am

There should be a five point line and then ten points from half court. :lol:
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by JoeD » Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:19 am

Racer2112 wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:14 am
JoeD wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:33 pm
We don't have to agree. Part of the "message board experience".

But what you are describing is a zone defense, and If we have Brown (52% from 3 this season), Eaves (36% from 3 last season), and KJ (37.5% from 3 this season) on the floor, Im of the mindset that we are going to get positive results more often than not, especially in a wrinkle that we exploit when our scout sees a matchup that we like.

the best part of putting in a wrinkle like that is that if something isn't working, you are one sub away from a different lineup.
I am in no way describing a zone defense. I am talking about sagging off and not caring if some players attempt an 18 foot jumper. That'd be a good defensive possession for me. If that's zone then so is staying in help side and switching on screens. Sample size from this season and Eaves sample size (and competition level when he actually got in the game last season) is too small for me to take those numbers as gospel truth. I fully expect all of them to be above 35% deep shooters, but part of their success will be tied to our spacing. If we don't get our spacing right then their men won't have to be in help (at least not as much) which means we won't be open for 3's or they will have time to close out and make our shots more difficult.

Well no crap if the scout team sees something we can exploit then we should throw out a weird lineup. We could go super small against certain match-ups with Quan, Chico, Eaves, Tevin, and Holiday but I wouldn't advise throwing that line on the floor every game either. This discussion on 3 bigs wasn't started as a "wrinkle" but as a way to get Demond consistent minutes, and I don't see this as something can be pulled out every game for that purpose.
Dan T wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:28 pm
Racer2112 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:24 pm

I'm excited about all of our bigs, but the freshman may just have to wait his turn or play so well he forces someone else to the bench. Basketball isn't played like it was in the 80's anymore, if there was more efficiency in 3 bigs at once then we would see it at higher levels.
Back when there was no 3 point shot line, three bigs was the norm. When the line came in at 19.5 feet, two bigs became the norm for obvious reasons. Now that the line has moved further out, the reward for going bigger has gone up. If you took the 3 point line away altogether, I think most everyone would run three bigs except when they couldn't keep them out there due to fouls/injuries/etc.
The NBA line is 23 ft 9 inches and they are only taking more and more 3's and going with smaller or at least better distance shooting lineups. The reward for going bigger has not gone up (at least not much) 3 point shots are still worth more than 2 and the line isn't that much further back for these guys. The 3 point line is never going away at this point, so I'm not sure why that matters.

Your point on spacing is good, but sagging off of guys hitting greater than 33% of of their 3s isn't a great plan. As for sample size errors, I completely understand. Its the concept of "make so-and-so beat us", but Brown is a 40% 3pt shooter and, aside from a bad game vs Southern, Eaves is a good shooter. KJ is the question mark, but that is why you play the game.

As for the zone remark, I was meaning it resembled a matchup style of zone, if you dont send a big out to guard a guy like KJ at the 3 pt line.

the reason I brought up the three bigs lineup was to find a way to get more minutes for Robinson. It wasn't to try to say we should be trotting out three bigs all night every night. If I wasn't clear, that is my fault.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by JoeD » Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:20 am

racerlover wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:28 am
There should be a five point line and then ten points from half court. :lol:
If they did that, I would draw up a dozen plays to get Brown looks from half court, because he could hit 30% I bet. (that is an astronomical EV)
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Dan T » Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:46 pm

Racer2112 wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:14 am
JoeD wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:33 pm
We don't have to agree. Part of the "message board experience".

But what you are describing is a zone defense, and If we have Brown (52% from 3 this season), Eaves (36% from 3 last season), and KJ (37.5% from 3 this season) on the floor, Im of the mindset that we are going to get positive results more often than not, especially in a wrinkle that we exploit when our scout sees a matchup that we like.

the best part of putting in a wrinkle like that is that if something isn't working, you are one sub away from a different lineup.
I am in no way describing a zone defense. I am talking about sagging off and not caring if some players attempt an 18 foot jumper. That'd be a good defensive possession for me. If that's zone then so is staying in help side and switching on screens. Sample size from this season and Eaves sample size (and competition level when he actually got in the game last season) is too small for me to take those numbers as gospel truth. I fully expect all of them to be above 35% deep shooters, but part of their success will be tied to our spacing. If we don't get our spacing right then their men won't have to be in help (at least not as much) which means we won't be open for 3's or they will have time to close out and make our shots more difficult.

Well no crap if the scout team sees something we can exploit then we should throw out a weird lineup. We could go super small against certain match-ups with Quan, Chico, Eaves, Tevin, and Holiday but I wouldn't advise throwing that line on the floor every game either. This discussion on 3 bigs wasn't started as a "wrinkle" but as a way to get Demond consistent minutes, and I don't see this as something can be pulled out every game for that purpose.

The NBA has several elite shooters on every team. Not many college teams have that luxury. It is a mathematical certainty that the reward for shooting 3's goes down with the extension of the line and that the reward for playing more long range shooters goes down as well. The only question is how much. That's where the statisticians and the coaches have their say.
Dan T wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:28 pm
Racer2112 wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:24 pm

I'm excited about all of our bigs, but the freshman may just have to wait his turn or play so well he forces someone else to the bench. Basketball isn't played like it was in the 80's anymore, if there was more efficiency in 3 bigs at once then we would see it at higher levels.
Back when there was no 3 point shot line, three bigs was the norm. When the line came in at 19.5 feet, two bigs became the norm for obvious reasons. Now that the line has moved further out, the reward for going bigger has gone up. If you took the 3 point line away altogether, I think most everyone would run three bigs except when they couldn't keep them out there due to fouls/injuries/etc.
The NBA line is 23 ft 9 inches and they are only taking more and more 3's and going with smaller or at least better distance shooting lineups. The reward for going bigger has not gone up (at least not much) 3 point shots are still worth more than 2 and the line isn't that much further back for these guys. The 3 point line is never going away at this point, so I'm not sure why that matters.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Dan T » Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:50 pm

[/quote]

The NBA line is 23 ft 9 inches and they are only taking more and more 3's and going with smaller or at least better distance shooting lineups. The reward for going bigger has not gone up (at least not much) 3 point shots are still worth more than 2 and the line isn't that much further back for these guys. The 3 point line is never going away at this point, so I'm not sure why that matters.
[/quote]


There is a ton of elite shooters in the NBA. Every team has more than one. That is not true at the college level, at least not elite shooters who play well enough overall to get lots of time on the floor.

It is a mathematical certainty that when the line moves outward, the reward for more shooters goes down and the reward for more bigs goes up. The only question is how much. That's where the stats and coaches have their say.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Racer2112 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:04 pm

JoeD wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:19 am
Your point on spacing is good, but sagging off of guys hitting greater than 33% of of their 3s isn't a great plan. As for sample size errors, I completely understand. Its the concept of "make so-and-so beat us", but Brown is a 40% 3pt shooter and, aside from a bad game vs Southern, Eaves is a good shooter. KJ is the question mark, but that is why you play the game.

As for the zone remark, I was meaning it resembled a matchup style of zone, if you dont send a big out to guard a guy like KJ at the 3 pt line.

the reason I brought up the three bigs lineup was to find a way to get more minutes for Robinson. It wasn't to try to say we should be trotting out three bigs all night every night. If I wasn't clear, that is my fault.
If you look back I'm pretty sure I said I would leave any of the bigs not named KJ open outside of the paint. I wouldn't let Brown sniff fresh air for anything. I think it is easier to focus on not letting Brown (or Eaves) have a clean look with more bigs on the floor since there is no reason for the guards to leave their man in help.

So far KJ has been a top of the key/elbow extended 3-point taker, and in a world where this line would work he would need to show he can make corner 3's (again not saying he can't).

Fair point on not using it every night. I'm sure not sure if randomly getting minutes would satisfy Robinson or just make him more frustrated.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Racer2112 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:23 pm

Dan T wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:50 pm
There is a ton of elite shooters in the NBA. Every team has more than one. That is not true at the college level, at least not elite shooters who play well enough overall to get lots of time on the floor.

It is a mathematical certainty that when the line moves outward, the reward for more shooters goes down and the reward for more bigs goes up. The only question is how much. That's where the stats and coaches have their say.
That's not true at the NBA level either. Who is an elite shooter for the Griz for instance? Ja would be WAY more devastating if they had one. Average shooters (33%-35%) are enough to open up the floor to make scoring easier for drivers, slashers, interior players, and other shooters. The defense has to honor that you can be far less efficient and still put up the same amount of points (if not more) by taking 3's instead of 2's even if you are not an elite shooter.

I'd be willing to bet 3% does not go down by much this season, and then it will quickly rise back to where it has been over the next few seasons. And it would have to go down dramatically for us to return to the era for 3 bigs and long mid range jumpers.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by 02Racer » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:03 pm

Racer2112 wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:23 pm
Dan T wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:50 pm
There is a ton of elite shooters in the NBA. Every team has more than one. That is not true at the college level, at least not elite shooters who play well enough overall to get lots of time on the floor.

It is a mathematical certainty that when the line moves outward, the reward for more shooters goes down and the reward for more bigs goes up. The only question is how much. That's where the stats and coaches have their say.
That's not true at the NBA level either. Who is an elite shooter for the Griz for instance? Ja would be WAY more devastating if they had one. Average shooters (33%-35%) are enough to open up the floor to make scoring easier for drivers, slashers, interior players, and other shooters. The defense has to honor that you can be far less efficient and still put up the same amount of points (if not more) by taking 3's instead of 2's even if you are not an elite shooter.

I'd be willing to bet 3% does not go down by much this season, and then it will quickly rise back to where it has been over the next few seasons. And it would have to go down dramatically for us to return to the era for 3 bigs and long mid range jumpers.
If the Grizz had a Klay Thompson or Devin Booker type shooter out on the perimeter with Ja, they’d be an entirely different team.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by speck » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:06 pm

And JA's assist stats would be out the roof.
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by JoeD » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:50 pm

Probably set the NBA rookie assist record while averaging 20 pts a game
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Re: RACERS vs Southern Illinois Game Thread

Post by Dan T » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:50 pm

Racer2112 wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:23 pm
Dan T wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:50 pm
There is a ton of elite shooters in the NBA. Every team has more than one. That is not true at the college level, at least not elite shooters who play well enough overall to get lots of time on the floor.

It is a mathematical certainty that when the line moves outward, the reward for more shooters goes down and the reward for more bigs goes up. The only question is how much. That's where the stats and coaches have their say.
That's not true at the NBA level either. Who is an elite shooter for the Griz for instance? Ja would be WAY more devastating if they had one. Average shooters (33%-35%) are enough to open up the floor to make scoring easier for drivers, slashers, interior players, and other shooters. The defense has to honor that you can be far less efficient and still put up the same amount of points (if not more) by taking 3's instead of 2's even if you are not an elite shooter.

I'd be willing to bet 3% does not go down by much this season, and then it will quickly rise back to where it has been over the next few seasons. And it would have to go down dramatically for us to return to the era for 3 bigs and long mid range jumpers.
For every inch the line moves outward, shooting percentages will drop. I'll take a bet on that one every time it's available, except I'm not into gambling. As for playing three bigs, that all depends on the quality of of your guards and your bigs. Coaches like to win.
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